More photos » David Zalubowski - AP

Salmons was clutch for the second time in as many nights.

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So let's put it to a vote: did the Bucks just get that stupid "signature win" everyone's been droning on about all season?  Or does the other team need to show up for it to count?

For sure, the Bucks haven't come close to beating a team as good as Denver on the road, and after their improbable comeback on Friday night, Milwaukee probably shouldn't have felt too much pressure going into the finale of their three game Western road trip.  Aside from the obvious challenge of facing an excellent Denver team with the league's second-best home record (30-5), the Bucks' key players were almost all coming off 45+ minute outings just 24 hours before. 

And apparently the Nuggets were thinking the same thing, because 48 minutes of Charmin-soft defense and jump shots later, the Nuggets found themselves on the business end of a 102-97 loss that they thoroughly deserved. 

The Bucks played Denver tight throughout the first half, had it even through 36 minutes and then managed to take a modest lead early in the fourth on jumpers by Ridnour and Salmons.  Yet as enjoyable as it was to watch the Bucks giving the Nuggets all they could handle, to be honest I kept expecting Denver to mount a run.  But it never happened--thanks to equal parts missed Denver jumpers and the Bucks always making plays when needed.  Ironically, the Bucks did much of their work at the foul line (13 of their 23 free throws came in the final 8:29 of the game), as they were rewarded for attacking the Nuggets' shaky perimeter defenders.

To the Bucks' credit, they came out and executed offensively as well as you could have expected given the circumstances, shrugging off Andrew Bogut's first truly bad game in quite some time (1/3 fg, 2 pts, 3 reb in 15 minutes) thanks to 25 valuable minutes from Kurt Thomas (5 pts, 6 rebs, 2 blk).  With Bogut sitting most of the game with foul trouble, Skiles also went small for extended periods (Ilyasova/Mbah a Moute up front), gambling that the Nuggets' size advantage on the glass would be offset by their lack of quickness on the other end. Not a bet I'd like to make every night, but you can't argue with the end result.

Chris Andersen (5 offensive boards, 12 total, 4 blocks) was particularly active cleaning up on the Nuggets' misses, but he also missed three putback dunks that in many ways summarized the Nuggets' inability to convert offensively.  Mbah a Moute, Salmons and Delfino managed to make Anthony work for his 29 points, as the Nuggets' superstar shot just 10/29 from the field.  It was a similar story for Chauncey Billups, who made an absurd 17/17 from the line but just 5/17 from the field.  In the end, Skiles had the luxury of not even bringing Bogut back late in the game, instead rewarding the ancient Thomas for an excellent defensive effort against Nene (just 7 points on 7 shots).

And for a game that was close throughout, there was surprisingly little drama in the closing minutes.  Anthony picked Salmons' pocket at the top of the key and drove the length of the court for an easy dunk that brought Denver to within a point with 2:19 left. But from there on out Anthony missed all four of his shots, turned it over once, and fouled Mbah a Moute on a rebound that led to a pair of clutch freebies from Milwaukee's favorite Cameroonian.  The Bucks then effectively put it away with 1:12 left, breaking a half-court trap to find Ilyasova all alone for a layup.  Amazingly that was the Bucks' only field goal in the final five minutes, but it was enough for Milwaukee to leave Denver feeling rather great about a 2-1 Western trip.

Three Bucks

John Salmons: 39 min, 26 pts, 8/16 fg, 1/1 threes, 9/9 ft, 4 ast, 3 reb, 3 to
Salmons would have been forgiven for not having the energy to follow up his 53 minute player-of-the-game effort from last night.  Instead, he started strongly and was the Bucks' go-to guy down the stretch, tallying a team-high 39 minutes while scoring efficiently against a Nuggets defense that was even worse than advertised.

Carlos Delfino: 27 min, 21 pts, 6/11 fg, 4/6 threes, 5/8 ft, 7 reb, 1 ast, 1 stl, 1 to
Delfino's night was almost spoiled by a couple late bricks from the line, but fortunately Salmons and the Bucks' defense picked up the slack.  He did most of his damage burying triples, but also scored five straight (two free throws and a driving three point play) early in the fourth to help the Bucks create the lead they would never relinquish.

Ersan Ilyasova: 32 min, 14 pts, 6/12 fg, 1/3 threes, 1/2 ft, 10 rebs, 2 ast, 1 blk, 0 to
Ilyasova was forced to play out of position at center for stretches, but ended up providing just enough hustle and bend-but-not-break defense to help the Bucks scratch a second win in as many nights.

Three Numbers

13.   For an explosive offense, the Nuggets are actually only middle-of-the-pack in terms of assists/game (21.4, 14th)--probably because of their reliance on 'Melo isos and the fact that they get to the line a ton.  But their 13 dimes tonight pretty accurately summed up their general stagnation on offense.  Maybe it was the 58% first quarter shooting that got the Nuggets feeling too good about themselves, because they spent most of the night focused more on iso plays and trying to beat the Bucks one-on-one, which given the Bucks' well-oiled help defense generally doesn't work too well.

37.2%. I'm not going to act like Denver was anywhere close to their best, but let's also give the Bucks' defense some credit for playing through some tired legs to hold Denver to just 37% shooting.

20-8.  Denver's bricklaying meant plenty of offensive rebound chances, and they didn't disappoint by pulling down 20 offensive boards--an excellent 38.5% of their own misses (they came into the game at 26.5%, 17th in the league).  If you're wondering how Denver hung around all game, you've found your reason.

Three Good

Roles well played.  The big complaint from the last two games was the lack of production from guys not named Bogut, Jennings, and Salmons, but it was the supporting cast which did most of the damage on a night when Jennings and Bogut combined for just 11 points.  Ridnour picked up for Jennings' slack by hitting 5/8 shots for 11 points, Thomas had one of his best games of the season, and Delfino/Mbah a Moute got it done at the forward spots. The Bucks become really tough to beat when Bogut is producing and getting that kind of help, but fortunately they didn't need a big night from Bogut this time around.

Showing up.  Judging by the Nuggets' performance, we shouldn't underrate the value of coming to play.  Considering the Bucks' amazing record of 12-6 in the second night of back-to-backs, you can't accuse Skiles of not having his guys ready to play regardless of the situation.

Grand theft basketball.  It feels like the Bucks stole two games in the span of 24 hours; last night they won in spite of their own play for most of the night, while tonight they played pretty well but got plenty of help from a club off its game.  Hey, whatever it takes.

Two Bad

Bogut.  Bogut never had much chance to get into a rhythm (thanks, fouls!) and even with his scoring and rebounding non-existent he managed to yet again block three shots.  But the reality is that the Bucks are not going to win many games with Bogut taking himself out of the game like this.  He's been significantly worse in back-to-backs all season (ironic given the Bucks' team success), but this was a bit extreme.

Offensive glass.  The Nuggets' offensive wasn't terrible from a production standpoint--108 pts/100 possessions, compared to their usual 113.  But it was all because of their relentless work on the boards, where Birdman and Carmelo both grabbed five offensive boards on the way to 20 in total.

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2009/2010 NBA Season
47-22 (30-5 home)	vs.	36-30 (13-21 away)
March 20, 2010
Pepsi Center
8:00 PM
Radio: WTMJ AM 620 TV: FSN Wisconsin
Probable starters:
Chauncey Billups	PG	Brandon Jennings
Arron Afflalo	SG	John Salmons
Carmelo Anthony	SF	Carlos Delfino
Nene Hilario	PF	Luc Mbah a Moute
Johan Petro	C	Andrew Bogut
(2nd) 112.5 - OFFENSE - 104.4 (23rd)
(14th) 106.9 - DEFENSE - 102.7 (2nd)
(5th) 95.2 - PACE - 92.5 (16th)

Coverage

Denver Stiffs / Roundball Mining Company

Hot in Denver.
Merry Spring. Snow in Milwaukee to celebrate, natch. Some cool temps in Denver too.

But Denver has won eight of nine and they are a sizzling 30-5 at home this season. The Cavaliers have the best home record at 30-4, so it doesn't get much more difficult than tonight. Five losses in almost five months. The Nuggets haven't lost at home since Feb. 11 to the Spurs.

Won one.
The last time the Bucks played the Nuggets was the last time the Bucks were about as hot as they are now. Indeed, Milwaukee's win over Denver waywayback on Nov. 11 was the team's third win in a row during a stretch in which they won seven of eight.

Of course, much has changed in the last four months. The Bucks somehow won that game with Hakim Warrick and Charlie Bell starting, Jodie Meeks as the eighth man, and Gadzuric and Roko getting time.

One big reason: Brandon Jennings had perhaps his best non-55-point-game of the season in the first matchup with Denver, going for 32/9/4 on 11-19 from the field, 2-2 from outside, and 8-8 at the line. Coincidentally, he followed that game with 55. Two best games of the year right in a row, improbably enough. Although, he made a case last night for his second best night of the season.

Meanwhile, Chauncey Billups is coming off a couple of tough games in which the Nuggets won despite him shooting a combined 4-21 (.190) from the field and 0-10 (like, zero) on threes.

Free throw rate.
Free throw rate is defined as free throws attempted / field goals attempted. The Nuggets are first in the NBA (38.7) and the Bucks are last (23.9).

Also, we talked just enough about Andrew Bogut's recent, relative success at the free throw line so that he shot 1-6 last night in Sactown. The Bucks made 14-23 compared to 23-30 for the Kings.

See TheJay's number-crunching for more Milwaukee free throw madness.

Last night.
The Bobcats, Raptors, and Bulls lost last night, and Milwaukee now leads Charlotte by 2.5 games for the five spot in the East.  Which is nice, because the Bucks would be ninth and out of the playoffs in the West. At 42-28, Portland is currently the last team in.

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More photos » Rich Pedroncelli - AP

Jennings reacts to putting a 75-footer off the iron at the end of regulation.

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Box Score

When Ime Udoka tipped in a Spencer Hawes miss to give the Kings a 91-82 with 2:28 left in the fourth, I felt pretty sure what the tenor of this recap would be. 

Remember the Clipper loss two days ago?  Yeah, pretty much the same story.  On a mission to piss off Scott Skiles, the Bucks looked sluggish on the road against a lottery team that looked as if they were the ones who had something to fight for.  The Modestly-Sized Three of Jennings, Bogut, Salmons put up numbers, but everyone else was MIA.  Not enough to get blown out, but a bad loss against a beatable opponent.

The added wrinkle was of course the "matchup" between rookie studs Tyreke Evans and Brandon Jennings, which would have been more compelling if not for the fact that a) Evans wrapped up the rookie of the year a while ago and b) Evans played off guard most of the night, which means they didn't really matchup much at all. 

Don't tell the Kings broadcasters of course, because when you're 23-45 it's probably not surprising that the entire broadcast would revolve around their star rook (I imagine FSN Wisconsin was probably similar).  Of course, the irony is that for most of the game it looked like the Jennings/Evans story would be a reverse of their overall rookie years: Jennings putting up big numbers in a losing effort, Evans doing a bit less but coming away with the victory.

And then things got a little zany.  In a most confounding, amusing and thoroughly enjoyable way...provided you're a Bucks fan.

Let's start with the plot summary.  Following Udoka's tip, Ersan Ilyasova put back Jennings' miss to cut the deficit to seven with 1:42 left. Jennings then stole the ball from Evans and set up ex-King Salmons in transition for a wing three with 51 ticks left.  Of course, every Kings fan will point out that Jennings dragged his pivot foot a moment before he located Salmons, but hey, who's counting?   Not the refs, so who am I to complain?  

Carl Landry missed on the ensuing Kings possession and Ilyasova grabbed the board, in the process giving Evans a forearm shiver that sent the presumptive ROY to the locker room with a bloodied mouth, concussion and a possibly fractured jaw.  Needless to say, things were going south in a hurry for Sacramento, and it turned out it was about to get even worse.  First, Salmons and Bogut worked a perfectly executed side P&R to get Bogut a dunk and bring the Bucks within two with 24 seconds remaining.  After two Kings free throws, Salmons used a Bogut screen (and no rotation from the Kings) to bury an open catch-and-shoot three from the top of the key, but Beno Udrih (26 pts, 9 ast) made both freebies to restore the Kings' three point lead with 20 seconds left.  

On the ensuing possession the Bucks looked headed for disaster when Jennings dribbled around what seemed like the entire perimeter of the court before picking up his dribble and barely getting the ball to Ilyasova at the top of the key.  But not bothered by the defenders in front or behind him, nor by the fact that he was about 27 feet from the hoop, Ilyasova erased all his previous last second misses by burying the game-tying three with just six seconds left.  Hey, whatever works.  

At that point I was still expecting Udrih to hit the game-winner, because, well, that's what Udrih seems to do.  And somehow the idea of winning still seemed like a foreign concept--I mean, surely the Bucks weren't going to actually win this silly game...right?

And yet, two overtimes later that's exactly what the Bucks did.  Neither team scored a point in the final 59 seconds of the first OT, as Jennings' shot at a storybook night went off the backiron as time expired.  But with Landry having fouled out and Evans in the locker room, the Kings simply ran out of ammo in the second OT.  Jennings found Bogut for a dunk and then drove, jab-stepped and buried a baseline jumper to give the Bucks a five point lead that thankfully stood up in the final two minutes.

A good team performance?  Not really.  But an example of why the pros can deliver drama and fun just as well as those college kids?  Most definitely.  More importantly, it keeps the Bucks on track for what really matters: the postseason.  That wasn't lost on Jennings, who pumped his fist as he dribbled out the clock.  Seeing a Bucks fan wearing a Robin Yount jersey near halfcourt, he walked over to give high-fives and hollered what he's really hoping for.

"Playoffs baby!"

Three Bucks

John Salmons: 53 min, 27 pts, 11/23 fg, 3/5 threes, 2/4 ft, 7 rebs, 5 ast, 1 to
The obvious choice here would be Jennings--that's what the headlines will likely be talking about tomorrow morning. But factoring in Salmons' defense on Evans makes him the obvious choice if you actually watched the game. While he got tons of support from his help defense, Salmons didn't give Evans anything easy and--when he wasn't overplaying Evans in order to bait him into passing or drive baseline--stayed in front of Evans about as well as could be expected.

Offensively, Salmons started the game looking very much at home in his old arena, sinking 5/6 fg for 11 first quarter points.  But he was invisible in the game's middle periods, making just a pair of free throws in the second and third quarters.  Fortunately, he got it going in time to not only help the Bucks take it to OT but win once they got there, dropping 14 in the fourth quarter and overtimes on a steady diet of corkscrewing layups, mid-range jumpers and those two big threes.  

Brandon Jennings: 45 min, 35 pts, 12/28 fg, 8/13 threes, 3/4 ft, 8 ast, 5 reb, 2 stl, 4 to
Do I think this game puts Jennings back in the hunt for the ROY?  Nah.  But did I absolutely love watching Jennings outplay Evans and help the Bucks steal a West Coast win?  Hell yes.  Sure, Brandon often talks (and tweets) a bit too much for his own good, but the kid keeps things...interesting.  And more importantly he has a knack for cashing the checks that his big mouth goes around writing.  Bucks fans love him, Kings fans hate him, and that's part of the fun, isn't it?

Tonight was in many ways vintage Jennings, carrying the Bucks' offense with 22 points in a mostly Bogut-less first half, before picking his spots more as the game went on.  The one constant was his three point shooting, which accounted for 24 of his 35 points, including a couple biggies in the fourth quarter to keep the Bucks within touching distance.  In fact, of his first 10 threes he made eight and missed only two--one a desperate heave at the end of the first half, the second a 75-foot hail mary that hit the rim at the end of regulation.  Though he missed his final three attempts from deep and, also in vintage fashion, made just 4/15 from inside the arc, he helped put the game away in the second OT with a beautiful dish for a Bogut dunk and the aforementioned drive and jumper.

Ersan Ilyasova: 35 min, 12 pts, 3/5 fg, 1/1 threes, 5/6 ft, 11 rebs, 2 ast, 2 to
On raw numbers alone, Bogut (21/11) would have been an obvious choice here, but I'll go with Ilyasova for his huge play down the stretch.  Besides, it's not like 12 points on five shots and 11 boards is anything to shake a stick at either.  And given I can distinctly remember Ersan airballing a couple other late-game jumpers (I think one was in his first stint in MKE), I was pretty excited to see him step up and bury such a difficult three to send the game to OT.

Moreover, the line above doesn't reflect any of the little things he does, either, intentional or otherwise.  While he wasn't trying to KO Evans, that play ended up being a hugely pivotal one in the game, since his rebound kept the Bucks alive and his forearm shiver meant the Kings were denied the services of their best player.  In OT he then took out the Kings' next best player by drawing a pair of loose ball fouls on Landry, sending him to the pine with six personals.

Three Numbers

83.  The Modestly-Sized Three accounted for 83 of the Bucks' 114 points and 14 of the Bucks' 19 overtime points.  They may not have the sex appeal of 2008 Garnett, Pierce and Allen, but it's working pretty well.  And I definitely prefer it to the perimeter-only Big Three of the Bucks 2001 glory days.  Let's hope Salmons doesn't opt out of his contract this summer.

8.  Evans only forced one bad shot--a thumper from three point range--and his 15 points on eight shots hardly represented an inefficient night from a scoring perspective.  But Salmons and his mates crowded Evans to great effect in the halfcourt, forcing him baseline whenever possible and daring him to make other guys win the game for Sacramento.  In the process the Bucks forced a couple travels, drew two charges, and a number of bad passes en route to eight Evans turnovers.  Considering Evans had averaged a triple double over the past two games, that's pretty damn good.

13.  Sacramento just seemed like the harder-working team for much of regulation, and the fact that the 6'5" Ime Udoka hauled down 13 boards seemed to capture that nicely.  Fittingly he didn't pull down any in the game's last 12 minutes, however.

Three Good

Rookie Battle.  It's the obvious storyline, and fortunately it went our way tonight.  While the Bucks have generally done a good job bottling up some of the game's most dynamic guards--their effort against Evans was particularly reminiscent of the way they've contained Dwyane Wade--seeing Jennings continue his strong play is just as encouraging.  The kid has now shot at least 43% from the field in each of his last six outings (yes, that's progress), including a scorching 21/38 from three point range.After scoring 20+ points just once in February, Jennings has already done it four times in March and is averaging 20.8 ppg over his last six.

Theft!  I generally prefer blowout wins, but that wouldn't have been nearly as fun as what the Bucks ended up delivering.  Yes, they deserved to lose for 46 minutes, and of course luck was on their side and then some in the late going.  But the ironic part is that the Bucks' late-game execution--generally a source of much hand-wringing by you, me and the rest of Bucks Nation--was actually their saving grace tonight.  Salmons' three and Bogut's dunk in the final minute were both perfect calls, for which Scott Skiles deserves a tip of the cap.  Ilyasova's prayer that forced OT was mostly just a ballsy, clutch shot by the Turkish Delight, but the Bucks didn't seem to tire in overtime and created enough quality chances to escape with a rather improbable victory.

Bogut's last 22 minutes.  Bogut looked out of sorts for much of the game, but seemed to catch a second wind in the late going, scoring 10 (5/8 fg) along with eight boards.  While the extra 10 minutes helped, it says a lot that Bogut can play poorly by his standards and still end up with 21 points, 11 boards, and two blocks.

Three Bad

No wake up call. The hope was that losing in Los Angeles would be something of a wake up call, reaffirming that the Bucks simply can't expect to beat teams just by showing up.  So it was rather disappointing to see Sacramento outplaying the Bucks in many of the same ways the Clips did on Wednesday--especially on defense.  Sacramento ended up at 44.4% shooting, but keep in mind they were at 52% through three quarters.  This sort of effort certainly won't fly in Denver, and it won't be helped by the fact that they're going to the Mile High City a night after a double OT game.

Bogut's first 36 minutes.  You had to see this game to appreciate how improbable Bogut's big numbers seemed to be.  Bogut looked a bit rusty in the first quarter and bricked his first four free throws before giving way to Kurt Thomas 11 minutes in.  Nothing weird about that, though we've come to expect more of late.

But those of us watching the game were then thrown into a minor panic when the second quarter came and Bogut remained planted on the bench throughout.  And it wasn't just that Bogut was on the bench--it was the fact that Primoz Brezec was playing meaningful minutes.  The horror! 

Was Bogut hurt?  (OH GOD WE'RE SO SCREWED IF HE'S HURT!!!!)  Or was Skiles maybe trying to send him some kind of message for not being sharp in the early going?  (FINE, THAT"S SKILES' THING, BUT PRIMOZ???)  Apparently it was the latter, and Bogut wasn't much better in the third.  Though he dropped in a couple hooks and was up to 11 points after finally making a free throw (after five misses), he looked to be moving gingerly, was getting beaten to rebounds, and Hawes (16 pts, 8 rebs, 4 ast, 2 blk) was clearly outplaying him.  I realize Hawes (still only 21) has his moments, and he may well end up developing into a very good center, but he's still a guy Bogut must outplay.

Beno'd!  For some reason Udrih just loves playing the Bucks.  He scores more against Milwaukee than any other team aside from his old club the Spurs, and those numbers are skewed since he's played a lot more since leaving  Tony Parker's shadow in Texas.  So of course he almost single-handedly carried the Kings to victory tonight, expertly using the space created by P&R and his deceptive quickness to kill the Bucks from everywhere on the court.  In fact, I barely celebrated Ilyasova's big three because I assumed a soul-crushing Udrih game-winner had to be on tap.  Thankfully his potential winner at the end of regulation rolled off the iron, but he was still the Kings' most valuable player on the night.

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Kid is too smooth

2009/2010 NBA Season
23-45 (17-17 home)	vs.	36-30 (13-21 away)
March 19, 2010
Arco Arena
9:00 PM
Radio: WTMJ AM 620 TV: FSN Wisconsin
Probable starters:
Beno Udrih	PG	Brandon Jennings
Tyreke Evans	SG	John Salmons
Donte Greene	SF	Carlos Delfino
Carl Landry	PF	Luc Mbah a Moute
Spencer Hawes	C	Andrew Bogut
(19th) 105.9 - OFFENSE - 104.4 (23rd)
(24nd) 110.1 - DEFENSE - 102.6 (2nd)
(6th) 94.3 - PACE - 92.5 (16th)

Coverage

Sactown Royalty / Cowbell Kingdom / Sac Bee Blog

JS: Carlos' ankle.  As Charles Gardner reported yesterday, the hope is that Delfino will be available after missing the Bucks' loss in L.A. on Monday--I've got him listed in the starting lineup, though that's largely because I believe in the power of positive thinking.  It's no secret the Bucks are much better off with Delfino starting ahead of Charlie Bell, though it's not like the Bucks should be hopeless without him either.  The problem was that Salmons was the only wing player who did much of anything against the Clips, which makes Delfino look all the more invaluable.

He underwent a magnetic resonance imaging exam immediately on Sunday night and another MRI on Monday. After the second test was taken, Delfino's worst fears were relieved and the injury was termed a bone bruise.

"It's getting better day by day," Delfino said. "It's nothing big. I'll be surprised if I've got to miss another game.

"At the beginning we were crossing fingers. We had the first MRI on Sunday but then we had another test and it was just a bone bruise, not the worst-case scenario."

StR: Tyreke the King...of Layups
The gang at Sactown Royalty break down the numbers behind the most obvious thing about Tyreke Evans: he's really, ridiculously, incredibly good at getting to the rim.  Bucks fans are especially aware of it given that's how Evans beat the Bucks in December--by stutter-stepping past Andrew Bogut for the game-winning layup with a second to go.

According to Hoopdata, Tyreke averages 8.3 attempts at the rim, about .7 more than the player in 2nd place, Zach Randolph.  He's also 1st in the league in makes at the rim at 5.0 a game (tied with LeBron).  More attempts and makes than every single big man in the league.

And what's even more unique about Tyreke is how much his scores at the rim are unassisted, unlike big men and explosive players like LeBron who throw down alley oops on a regular basis.  Tyreke is only assisted on 24.7% of his makes around the rim, while LeBron is at about 48.1%.  The only other player in the top 40 of Attempts at the rim with less % of his makes that are assisted is Russell Westbrook at 21.2% (Attempts 5.7 FG at the rim a game).

JS: Clipper zone troubles Bucks
A major source of discussion in the game thread and recap was the Bucks' struggles against the Clippers zone in the fourth quarter.  Despite going with their reserves against the Bucks' big guns, Kim Hughes' Clips stifled the Bucks' offense, denying inside looks and allowing the Bucks to fire blank (0/7 threes) from deep.  It's not the first time Milwaukee's struggled with the zone; off the top of my head it seemed to play a major role in losses in Toronto and (if memory serves me correctly) Atlanta, while Miami had some success with it in Milwaukee before the Bucks' three point shooting eventually did them in.

"We've struggled against zones a couple games this year and a couple games we've played real well against zones," Bucks center Andrew Bogut said. "It's just a matter we couldn't get into the paint, and when you can't get into the paint with a zone, it's playing into their hands."

Kings' Lineup Evolution
Jason Thompson was a big part of the Kings' win in Milwaukee, but he's lost his starting job to deadline acquisition (and Milwaukee native) Carl Landry--who ironically made his mark in Houstn as one of the league's best sixth men.  Landry's minutes are way up since coming to Sacramento (27 to 37 mpg) and his numbers are marginally better (16.9 ppg, 7.1 rpg on 51% shooting), which isn't a bad thing considering how hyper-productive he was in Clutch City.

Meanwhile, the departure of Kevin Martin has cleared the way for Beno Udrih to start at PG and allow Tyreke Evans to move over to SG.  It hasn't hurt Evans' game a bit, and over the last four he's been doing some silly stat-stuffing: 20.8 ppg, 10 rpg, 8.5 apg.  I'm not sure why anyone is even making up arguments about who might challenge him for rookie of the year anymore--Steph Curry's recent hot streak has made him the 2010 Brandon Jennings in terms of playing second fiddle in ROY hype, but why even bother?  As a Bucks fan, I'm excited Jennings has been a quick study while playing point for a playoff team, but I've never seen record as the ultimate trump card for the rookie hardware.  It's a great tiebreaker if two guys are neck and neck, but I think Evans is far enough ahead on personal merit that everything else is irrelevant.

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More photos » Chris Pizzello - AP

Kaman and Bogut went at it all night.

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The Clippers may not have the Showtime pedigree of their Staples Center roommates, but there must be something about playing in L.A. that prepares you for national television better than say...well, playing in Milwaukee. 

Because in spite of all the numbers saying which of these two teams is supposed to win--in theory that'd be the red-hot Bucks and not the ice-cold Clips--some old boogeymen again reared their ugly heads as the Bucks slumped to their first loss in over two weeks. 

After their 1-5 West Coast trip in January, the Bucks did little to suggest they've figured out the Pacific time zone, allowing the Clips to shoot 61% in the first quarter and build a nine point halftime lead on the strength of Baron Davis' 5/5 start against Brandon Jennings and Chris Kaman's ability to match Andrew Bogut shot-for-shot in the early going.  Bogut was the early story as the Bucks force-fed him from the opening tip; the big man scored 10 points on 5/8 shooting in the first 6:29 of the game, rolling in a series of hooks and facing up Kaman to dribble drive on him.  But Davis got into the lane at will early on and the Bucks' normally sound help defense never seemed quick enough to bother the Clippers, who for good measure were also making some shots they normally don't.  Kaman rounded off the period with three straight jumpers to match Bogut with 10 points.

L.A. pulled away late in the second thanks to a series of threes from Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw, and Eric Gordon, turning a 40-39 deficit into a 52-43 halftime lead.. It was the Clips' guards doing much of the damage--Gordon and Davis outscored the Bucks' starting pairing of Jennings and Bell 22-6 in the half--but in the third quarter Milwaukee managed to turn the tables behind Jennings' hot shooting.  The Clips moved the ball well and kept making jumpers early in the period, as an open Rasual Butler three gave L.A. a 68-54 edge.  When was the last time the Bucks trailed by double-digits?  Maybe I'm forgetting something, but I can't remember it happening since Salmons was acquired.

In any case, Skiles was so annoyed with his Delfino-less perimeter defense that he had inserted Royal Ivey for the struggling Charlie Bell early in the third--desperate times I guess--but it surprisingly seemed to give the Bucks a shot in the arm.  After a couple minutes, Ivey's obnoxious defense helped encourage less Clipper ball movement and some increased one-on-one from Davis and Gordon, who seemed to be feeling a little smug with their first half success.  Instead, it was Jennings who suddenly caught fire, starting with a couple floaters in the lane, then drilling back-to-back threes to cut the Clipper lead to single digits.  After a pair of Bogut freebies brought Milwaukee within two, he went to work again, scoring six straight in the final 70 seconds of the period to bring the Bucks all the way back and give them a two point edge heading into the fourth.  After a three point first half, Jennings had 19 through three and looked ready to push the Bucks' streak to seven games.

Sadly, Clipper head coach Kim Hughes had the perfect tonic.  While Skiles looked to keep the momentum and went with Bogut and Jennings to start the fourth, Hughes went with his reserves and a zone defense, hoping to throw off Jennings' rhythm. 

Craig Smith and Travis Outlaw began attacking and drawing fouls, and the Clippers' more physical, active approach was no more obvious than when DeAndre Jordan jumped over Bogut and Salmons to hammer down a Blake miss.  Meanwhile, Milwaukee couldn't figure out a way over or through the Clipper zone--a weakness we've seen a number of times this season.  Missing Delfino (sore ankle) didn't help, and the Bucks started firing blanks when they did get open looks. And fittingly they seemed to get blocked or stripped every time they found a crease to exploit.  Just good, aggressive Clipper defense--the kind we're used to seeing from the Bucks.

Three Bucks
Andrew Bogut: 41 min, 18 pts, 8/15 fg, 2/4 ft, 11 rebs, 3 ast, 1 stl, 3 blk, 2 to
Bogut was an early focal point with 10 points (5/8 fg) in the first seven minutes, but Kaman showed he could match Bogut's drives and hooks with jumpers and his own repertoire of polished post moves.  The Bucks also struggled to keep Bogut involved as the game went on--he got just seven FGA in his final 34 minutes, in large part thanks to the Clippers denying him one-on-one chances with the zone and double teams.

Brandon Jennings: 35 min, 21 pts, 9/16 fg, 3/7 threes, 5 ast, 5 reb, 1 stl, 5 to
Jennings' third quarter explosion was a welcome sight, as was his tidy shooting line, especially after the way Davis took it to him early on.  Skiles juggled Jennings' defensive matchups to keep him from being exploited too much, but it didn't really matter in the third as he put on a show for his hometown fans.  He scored on a pretty drive and finish in the fourth, but otherwise was largely held in check by the zone.

John Salmons: 41 min, 20 pts, 6/12 fg, 1/2 threes, 7/8 ft, 3 ast, 3 to
Salmons had what seemed to be the quietest 20 points you can imagine, which isn't meant to be an insult.  He was the only Buck who showed any ability to create shots--OK, perhaps not surprising--and accounted for seven of the Bucks' 11 free throws.  Was a step slow in closing out on Butler's open shots, but by the same token the guards' inability to contain Davis and Gordon may have been the main reason.

Three Numbers

.531.  The Clips shot 53% from the field, which was not surprisingly a combination of good shooting and step-slow defending.  

29-19.  On the ESPN telecast, Hughes told Kevin Calabro at the start of the fourth that he was going to the zone, which immediately made me nervous.  Even though the Bucks have plenty of shooters, they've been foiled by the zone on a number of occasions this year, most obviously because it's harder to get Bogut the ball in close.

25-19.  The Bucks had held 10 of their last 13 opponents under 20 assists, while they've managed 20 or more in 10 of 13.  This is how you win basketball games, so it's not surprising that the Clips' 25-19 edge translates into a Bucks loss.  Overall, the Clippers simply did a better job of preventing penetration and closing out on shooters than the Bucks--out-Bucking the Bucks.

Two Good

Jennings' mojo.  It lasted only 12 minutes, but Jennings' electric third quarter was a nice reminder of the kid's explosive scoring ability--something we've obviously seen too little of in the past few months. 

Short trip.  If the Bucks are going to once again play scared on a Western swing then the good news is that this trip is only three games long.  With a game in Denver on Saturday, it's suddenly even more important that the Bucks pull out a victory on Friday against the 23-45 Kings.

Three Bad

Losing to the Clips.  No offense, Clipper Nation, but losing to the other inhabitants of the Staples Center is kind of embarrassing right now.  I'm not sure if the Bucks were complacent, but they simply couldn't match the Clippers' intensity for long period of the second and fourth quarters, and not surprisingly were outscored handily in both periods. 

Scrubbed.  The Bucks' bench has generally been the group frustrating the other guys, but tonight Milwaukee got a dose of their own medicine.  Though the Clips' subs only outscored the Bucks' bench by a single point (26-25), the Bucks couldn't take advantage of Davis and Kaman watching from the bench to start the fourth.  Skiles tried to blow it open by sticking with the group that went on a big run to close the third, but the Clippers' zone and energy not only let them hang in the game, but helped them take a lead they wouldn't relinquish.  Moreover, the Clipper bench scored 26 on 17 shots, while the Buck bench's 25 came on 28 shots.  Not getting it done.

Fouls.  We've seen it for much of the year, but tonight the Bucks' inability to defend without fouling was again put on display--this time for the whole nation to see.  When the Clips struggled with their jumpers they could always rely on the Bucks fouling them when they attacked the rim.  The Bucks outfouled the Clips by a whopping 26-12 margin and made just 11/14 from the stripe, compared to 27/34 from L.A.

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"Monta Ellis at the scorer's table, Baron likely done..."

2009/2010 NBA Season
21-44 (18-15 home)	vs.	36-29 (13-20 away)
March 17, 2010
Staples Center
9:30 PM
Radio: WTMJ AM 620 TV: FSN Wisconsin, ESPN
Probable starters:
Baron Davis	PG	Brandon Jennings
Eric Gordon	SG	Charlie Bell
Rasual Butler	SF	John Salmons
Drew Gooden	PF	Luc Mbah a Moute
Chris Kaman	C	Andrew Bogut
(26th) 103.3 - OFFENSE - 104.5 (23rd)
(22nd) 109.7 - DEFENSE - 102.5 (2nd)
(19th) 92.4 - PACE - 92.5 (16th)

Coverage

Clips Nation / L.A. Times / ClipperBlog

Update: Carlos Delfino will miss the game due to a sprained ankle.  Charles Gardner reports Charlie Bell will start in his place.  Delfino played through the injury for much of the second half on Sunday but was in a walking boot this morning. Thankfully it doesn't sound like a serious injury and expect to see lots of Jerry Stackhouse, himself coming off a minor injury.

"He's only wearing the boot for precautionary reasons.  More than likely, in a playoff game he would play tonight. We want to err on the side of caution. He's got a couple things going on in there, but he's still a little bit sore. We didn't want to push it tonight."

Three.
The Clippers shot 5-25 (.200) on three pointers in their 108-100 loss to the Hornets on Monday. The starting backcourt of Baron Davis (0-3) and Eric Gordon (0-7) combined to shoot 0-10 from long range. Gordon (.366) isn't typically bad from outside, but Davis (.284) really needs to stop it with the threes. He's attempting 4.0 per game, making 1.1. As a team, the Clips are pretty bad from beyond the arc, ranking 27th in the NBA at 33.5 %.

The Bucks are second in the NBA allowing just 5.3 threes per game, so we'll see.

Brandon and Baron.
Jennings fared very, very well against superstar and supersized Deron Williams last week. Now Brandon Jennings returns home tonight, where he will face another literally and figuratively big point guard matchup. The 63" and 215 pound Baron Davis scored 18 points and dished out a season-high 17 assists in Monday's loss, the team's eighth loss in a row.

Whose turn?
I mentioned this in the recap of the Pacers game: The Bucks have had a different leading scorer in five straight games (all wins).

@ Washington: Delfino (and Bogut) 19
vs Cleveland: Jennings 25
vs Boston: Bogut 25
vs Utah: Salmons 24
vs Indiana: Stackhouse 20

NBA > NCAA.
The NCAA tournament starts tomorrow, well, technically it started last night with the play-in game. Including that one, there were 65 teams for 64 total games. Coincidentally, the Bucks have played exactly 65 games so far.

Some people like to say this tourney is it. Would you trade watching the first 65 Bucks games for the NCAA tournament? Oh, my.

So ridiculous.
Kelly Dwyer, writing Behind the Boxscore (a daily must-read), was not too fond of the Clips' effort in their 108-100 loss to the Hornets on Monday. Are the Clippers this year's anti-Bucks?

The Clippers are so ridiculous, so nutty, so laughin' when you're down nine in the fourth quarter, so full of weirdos that pass up open shots to take odd shots while doing weird things on each end of the floor while likely making all sorts of excuses in the huddle or while running (sometimes) back down the court. If a certain season-ticket holder had any hair on his chinny-chin-chin, he'd actually report on a few things and give us a book for the ages on this mess.

Mismatch?
This game looks like a major mismatch considering the recent forms of the team: The Clippers (eight straight losses) are as cold as the Bucks are hot (six straight wins). Los Angeles can't score and Milwaukee can't be scored on. If the Jazz/Bucks game was the unstoppable force against the immovable object, then this is the inherently stoppable anti-force against the immovable object.

But don't overlook any team on the road. The Clippers are 18-15 at home while the Bucks are 13-20 on the road. Granted, Milwaukee has been just about unbeatable on the road since Stack and Salmons came aboard, but even the elite NBA teams are vulnerable on the road. And hot as they are, the Bucks haven't graduated to the elite yet.

As such, the Bucks are slight, 4.5-point favorites.

ESPN.
Nice to get some broadcast love with the game on ESPN, but since it's St. Patrick's Day, against the Clippers, and starts at 9:30 central, not sure this will be a ratings winner.

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This latest Brandon Jennings Under Armour commercial has been circulating 'round the web for a couple days now, but just in case you haven't caught it, feel free to watch above. It's a bit of a docu-mercial, with a run-time of just over two minutes. A fresh and stylish spot though, fitting in with Milwaukee Bucks players' rich history of commercial stardom...

Consider: Eric Murdock was selling Bucks basketball like no one else in '93, I linked to this Charles Barkley/Robert Traylor Nike Camp Force commercial earlier this season, 2001 was our time, and no one will soon forget the first time they saw Ersan Ilyasova pitching Casper computers.

But there remains one commercial that stands a cut above, because once upon a very special cinematic place and time, Yi Jialian stole imaginations, minds, and at least a couple hearts through yogurt: When Yi's Milkshake Brought All the Girls to the Yard. And big-ups to Frank for the original review of the masterpiece.

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RU: Bucks looking at Alexander Johnson and Shavlik Randolph

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More photos » Jeffrey Phelps - AP

Here's Andrew Bogut's week summarized in a single picture.

Browse more photos »

NBA.com: Bogut named East Player of the Week
The title says it all...congrats, Drew. 

Bogut led Milwaukee to a 3-0 week, which included wins over the Celtics and Jazz. Bogut led the league in blocks (3.67) and was second in rebounding (13.7), while scoring 19.3 points per contest. With a point-rebound double-double in each game, Bogut now has 32 double-doubles on the season, placing him eighth in the NBA.

BrewHoop: The Big Picture for Our Small Town Team
Mitchell with a great post on what all this short-term success may or may not mean for the long term.  As I was reading it I couldn't help but think that it really captures not just the depressing recent history of the franchise, but also our mindset as long-suffering fans of the Bucks. 

FanPosts: The Bucks and Losing the FTA Battle
Lots of great discussion over in the FanPosts (see right sidebar).  Among them, TheJay offers an update on the Bucks' free throw line disparity, where things have improved a bit since an utterly terrible start to the season.  Check it out.

The Score: Is Jennings really that terrible at shooting?
Scott Carefoot does some digging on Brandon Jennings' shooting numbers.

Luckily, there’s a stat that does take the extra value of three-point makes into consideration: Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%). eFG% is calculated through the formula (FGM + 0.5 * 3PM) / FGA so that three-pointers get the credit they deserve. Jennings’ eFG% on the season is .423. That’s still pretty bad, but it’s actually not even the worst in the NBA among players with over 900 FGAs. That dishonour goes to Pistons guard Rodney Stuckey, who has a .412 eFG% on 980 FGAs. Stuckey’s FG% of .406 makes him appear to be a better shooter to a casual observer, but he’s only 11-for-56 (19.6 percent) from three-point range this season, so he’s actually a worse shooter overall.

Jennings' epically bad shooting might also be stabilizing a bit.  After making fewer than 37% of his shots in nine straight games, Jennings has made 43% or better in four straight. Moderation probably has a lot to do with it--after suggesting he might stop shooting altogether a couple weeks ago, Brandon's averaged only 11.3 fga over the last four, compared to 15.2 fga over the entire season.  While Jennings' shooting volume usually doesn't bother me as much as it probably should ("he's learning!" is what I usually try to tell myself), there's certainly no need for fadeaway jumpers from just inside the three point line.  Of course, Jennings is also difficult to judge because he seems to be above average at making tough shots; I don't have statistical validation for that, but I'd guess most people who've seen a lot of him would agree.  The problem is that tough shots, even if you're relatively good at them, still aren't good shots.  And taking a lot of them only compounds the issue.

Shooting less also hasn't hurt his scoring over the past week, as he's averaged 17.3 ppg thanks to red hot shooting from deep (10/18 threes) and more trips to the line (17/19 ft).  He won't shoot 56% from deep over the long haul (we knew that back in November, too) but in the big picture this is still progress: a choosier, higher-efficiency player who continues to keep the ball moving and keep teammates involved.  For a 20-year old, that's a very good thing.

Courtside Analyst: How did the Bucks get so good so fast?
Ty with some great points about the Bucks' remarkable turnaround.

Gadzuric, Elson, Meeks, Redd, Warrick, and Bell combined to provide a Win Contribution of -0.377 (and that understates their collective damage because as their percentage of playing time dwindles so does their negative win contribution). Now all of them, in one way or another, are essentially finished as Milwaukee Bucks. That has had a tremendous positive subtraction effect. Now the worst win contributor in the rotation is Kurt Thomas, and for a backup center his negative contribution isn’t all that bad.

NBA Playbook: Dissecting Bogut's late dunk against Indiana
Sebastian Pruiti breaks down the Bucks' late-game Jennings-to-Bogut dunk on the baseline.  What makes this so useful to look at is that the Bucks have been running this play to great effect all season--I'd guess they try it at least a few times every game and it seems like Bogut gets one or two cheap buckets every night this way. It seems that this play normally comes out of a timeout or early in each half, so to see it work in a late game situation was especially cool. I think the most interesting thing is what Sebastian notes here:

As Jennings fires the pass in there, Bogut actually stops his cut, and this is a pretty crafty move by the big man. Bogut doesn’t meet the basketball (like most players are taught), and he lets the ball get to him.  Bogut doesn’t meet the basketball because he is already in terrific position to make the catch (right under the basket).  If he meets the ball on the block (as he finishes his cut), he would have given the defenders a chance to catch up.

You see every team use these kinds of plays to set up deep post position for their big man as they come across the paint, but it's interesting how the Bucks also run Bogut more towards the baseline, giving Jennings the option of throwing a more classic backdoor pass.

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Stop me if you've heard this one; a seven-foot tall Australian with a "bust" label, a (barely) 6'1" Comptonite who can't shoot, and a head coach who was once fired on Christmas Eve walk into the Cousins' Center, and...

As of yet, there is no punchline to this joke.  But as a fanbase, we're used to the ending being seriously unfunny, no matter how laughable the on-court product demonstrated itself to be.  After the downfall of the George Karl era, we were treated to efforts like 41-41, 30-52, 26-56.  We had the distinct honor of enjoying the signing of Dan Gadzuric, Bobby Simmons, and Michael Redd, not to mention the drafting of T.J. Ford, Yi Jianlian, and Joe Alexander.  And let's not forget the Terry Stotts and Larry Krystkowiak experiences.

Starting with the Eastern Conference Finals loss to Philadelphia back in 2001, the last decade was downright dismal.  We were among the NBA's whipping boys, along with the Clippers, the Knicks, the Grizzlies, and most recently, the Nets.  Of those teams, only the Grizzlies have shown any hope of escaping the league's cellar, thanks to a boon of young, exciting talent.

Thankfully, all signs point to the Milwaukee Bucks making that rise from poor to mediocre to above-average to potential contenders.  It's difficult to figure out how they've done it unless you've been paying close attention to them.  As it turns out, the addition of a brash facilitator (Brandon Jennings) and the subtraction-by-injury of a woefully overpaid shell of a scorer (Michael Redd) were the two catalysts to this season's surge.  Most recently, it was the deadline trade for John Salmons that sparked two six-game winning streaks, a flood of national exposure, a 36-29 record, a number eight spot in the latest ESPN power rankings (no, really!), and most importantly, a firm grip on the fifth seed for the 2010 playoffs.

But here's my question to you: as a fanbase, do we really expect this to last?

Think about it for a second.  At the end of the season, the Bucks will have won over 40 games, twice as many as most would have predicted.  They'll have a ton of momentum for the playoffs, and they might even knock off a team like Boston or Atlanta in the first round.  But do you really believe this current team can take down a healthy juggernaut like Cleveland or Orlando in a seven-game series?

Unfortunately, the likely answer is a resounding "no".  This year, the league belongs to the two conference's top couples: Cleveland and Orlando in the East, Los Angeles and Denver in the West.  But what of next year?  Certainly, the Cavaliers' dominance hinges solely on the ability to keep LeBron James away from potential suitors.  They lose him, they lose everything.  Likewise, the Magic need to keep everybody happy in their established roles.  If someone rocks that boat, it just might tip over.

What about the second tier of teams in the East?  Boston is on it's way down, but Atlanta is on it's way up.  Charlotte can be a perennial 45-game winner if they shake their home/away schizophrenia.  Miami might be able to keep Dwyane Wade and put decent players around him.  Toronto is Cleveland-lite: they lose Bosh, they're next year's Nets. 

At present, Milwaukee is at a crossroads.  Either they're a talented team that managed to get red hot at a good time and are not as good as advertised (kind of like Dallas), or they're a team that slummed it out for a few years in order to make their move to a higher rank during the shifting of the conference (kind of like Oklahoma City).  But which route is it?

The basketball fan in me screams in favor of the latter.  The formula of Bogut + Jennings + five role-players who complement each other extremely well + Scott Skiles' infusion of a defensive-oriented culture results in a team that just needs one more piece to put it over the edge.  Perhaps a power forward who can both run and stretch the floor (I hear Chris Bosh wants to take a 75% pay cut!), or a shooting guard who does exactly what John Salmons does, except better and more consistently (Evan Turner, come on down!). 

But the Bucks fan in me is more reserved, more pessimistic, and more concerned.  The likelihood of getting a player that both meshes with the current core's skill set and is willing to buy into the program that John Hammond and Scott Skiles have implemented is iffy, at best.  Remember, just because we're happy with marginal success this year doesn't mean we should accept anything less than exponential improvement in the following years.

Who knows, maybe that difference-maker is already here.  Maybe John Salmons can get re-upped and have a late-career renaissance a la Chauncey Billups or Vince Carter.  Maybe Ersan Ilyasova really can turn into Turk Nowitzki.  Maybe Luc Richard Mbah a Moute can remain a scorer's worst nightmare, but add a long range jump shot to his arsenal.  More likely than not, though, these players will remain what they are: role-players.  That leaves the best option to add the missing piece coming either via trade or the draft. 

With the right to swap first rounders with the suddenly-reeling Bulls, there's a shot of getting a difference maker in June, like the aforementioned Evan "The Villain" Turner (even though the only way the Bucks can get him is by trading into the top-3).  Also, the mammoth expiring contracts of Michael Redd ($18.3 million), Salmons ($5.8 million) and Dan Gadzuric ($7.3 million) are outstanding assets that could be the foundation of a blockbuster trade that brings that difference-maker. 

Or maybe we don't make any trades at all.  Maybe we bide our time through 2010-2011, let those contracts expire, and try to make a move in the 2011 offseason.  Maybe Brandon Jennings becomes the Iverson/Nash hybrid we think he can become and carries the team on his skinny back, or Bogut further becomes the uber-skilled foil to Dwight Howard's physical brawn.  There's a dozen different ways where "Fear the Deer" could be the mantra for the next five years.

But these are all best-case scenarios.  Hypotheticals that work out all too perfectly.  For every possibility that goes right, there are three or four ways it can go horribly wrong.   After all, Michael Redd was supposed to be the man.  T.J. Ford was supposed to be the point guard of the future.  Dan Gadzuric was supposed to be Anderson Varejao before Anderson Varejao was Anderson Varejao.  Yi Jianlian was supposed to challenge Dirk Nowitzki as the premier finesse forward.  Larry Krystkowiak was supposed to give the team the defensive mentality and swagger that it needed to complement its offensive capabilities.

Don't get me wrong, I trust John Hammond with his plan to build Milwaukee into what the Pistons were in 2003.  If there's any way the Bucks get to the Finals, that's how it's going to happen, and if there's a man to make it happen, it's Hammond.  Likewise, I trust Scott Skiles to keep his excellent relationship with Jennings and Bogut intact while keeping all 15 players on the roster accountable.  But I can't shake the feeling that the team's meteoric rise will taper off all too quickly, leaving us only with the broken pieces of what was supposed to be.

In other words, I'm afraid that it'll turn out to be business as usual; a short period of success followed by a tumble downwards, punctuated with misfire after misfire.  Because, after all, we cheer for the Bucks.  And the Bucks can't be a contender in the NBA...can they?  Is the team's stigma too much to overcome?  Or has my pessimism blinded me to the subtle brilliance budding on the shores of Lake Michigan?

So...a seven-foot tall Australian with a "bust" label, a (barely) 6'1" Comptonite who can't shoot, and a head coach who was once fired on Christmas Eve walk into the Cousins' Center...

How does this joke end?

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The latest “Protect This House – I WILL” commercial from Under Armour features Young Buck’s journey from Rome to Milwaukee, and the work he’s put in. Along the way there are plenty of images of Milwaukee, including the skyline, a nasty smokestack, and 9th Street entrance to the Milwaukee County Courthouse under MacArthur Square. Unfortunately the airport code for Milwaukee’s General Mitchell Airport is MKE not MIL. The Bucks three-letter code in the NBA is MIL.

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Box Score

MILWAUKEE -- Four wins against the Pacers this season.

None of them particularly enchanting or inspiring, and this one certainly held to that form. A bit cruel to not have this one televised locally with the team on such a scorching run of basketball, but the Bucks and Pacers don't play the prettiest brand of basketball when they get together.

Even when it seemed like the Bucks could finally cruise to a win, they couldn't. Up by double-digits for almost the entire second half, Milwaukee turned on cruise control, and that was the problem, as they sputtered and stalled. The Pacers aren't much to begin with, and they weren't even on their game today, but they still came back and almost stole this one.

Neither team shot well, Indiana's offense was as bad as advertised through three quarters, and the Bucks turned a 16-point lead into a 92-88 ballgame with three minutes to go. The details are grim, and they include Solomon Jones, Brandon Rush, and Danny Granger giving it to Milwaukee's backups, starters, anyone.

Milwaukee made a few plays at the end, but they mostly had the clock run out in time. A.J. Price (as though the wins and losses don't matter at this point) got a technical and gave Milwaukee a point right when everything was going for his team down 91-86, and the Bucks ironically finished it off at the free throw line, where the Pacers spent just about the entire day.

Jerry Stackhouse (the fifth different leading scorer in a row) stepped up because someone always does during this run that has outgrown "nice" and "little." Some of the wins have been tremendous, some are just wins.

This was just a win, but it was. And it's not easy beating the same team four times. The Bucks are going to find that out all over again in about a month against an opponent much stronger than the Pacers.

THREE BUCKS

Jerry Stackhouse. After a quiet, five-point night against Utah, Stack came back and masked his team's bad offensive start with a trio of three pointers in the first half that gave the Bucks an eight-point lead at halftime.

His outside shooting was really a story of the game -- without him making 4-6 from deep the Bucks would have an epically disappointing loss on their hands. But Jerry was on from outside, and he went inside went necessary: Early in the fourth quarter, he contorted through the lane and hung in the air for a gorgeous layup in traffic.

Team-high 20 points, the five turnovers are too many, but a very strong game overall.

Andrew Bogut. Following three smashing games against the Pacers, Bogut struggled from the onset in this one, making 1-6 from the field in the first quarter and just 2-10 going into the half.

And in the end, he finished with 15/12/3, three more blocks, and zero turnovers. The three blocks are pretty standard, you notice them like you notice seven rebounds from Ersan Ilyasova -- because that is an average day at work now.

In the (rather recent) past, when Bogut was off, he was off. Now when the Aussie is off, he is still one of the better players in the game. That's a telltale sign of a pretty good player becoming a very good one.

At least 12 points in 17 of the past 18 games for Bogut. Not surprisingly, 15 wins in those 18 games.

Luke Ridnour. For the first time this season, for the first time in his almost three seasons with the Bucks, Ridnour went scoreless in consecutive games, against the Celtics and Jazz. One of the real stars of the team of the first few months was devolving into barely a rotation player -- so it's good to have you back, Luke.

Nothing overwhelming, but 13 points on 5/8 shooting and connecting on his only three point attempt is reminiscent of his early-season success.

Skiles, post-game:

I thought he was very sharp tonight.

THREE NUMBERS

1. Indiana pulled down just one offensive rebound in the first half despite missing 24 shots in the first 24 minutes. They finished the game with six offensive boards, compared to 14 for Milwaukee.

50 %. The Bucks made 8-16 threes, and they needed them.

40-20. Milwaukee doubled up Indiana inside, scoring 40 points in the paint compared to 20 for the Pacers.

THREE GOOD

We've got backup. The Bucks have won recently more in spite of the bench, but the reserves returned to form this afternoon. Aside from Ilyasova, no one outside the starting five did much of anything in wins over Cleveland, Boston, and Utah. And while Ersan was back at it again, much of the second line gave the Bucks a much-needed jolt on Sunday afternoon.

The reserves scored the first 18 points of the second quarter, extending the lead from a slim four to a fat 11 point cushion that they held onto ever-so-narrowly throughout the rest of the game. Stackhouse was the most money, dropping 11 points in the first half and nine more in the secnod, and it was wonderful to see Luke Ridnour and Kurt Thomas contribute, just like old times.

Milwaukee's backups scored 46 points compared to 17 for Indiana's reserves.

D = T. Since coming home from the nation's capitol after annihilating the Wizards on March 5, the Bucks swept a four-game homestand.

And in each of those games, the visiting team has racked up at least one technical. Against Cleveland, it was Anderson Varejao, then Glen Davis for Boston, a couple in a row kicked out Utah's Carlos Boozer, and coach Jim O'Brien and then A.J. Price (particularly bad timing late in the fourth) both earned technicals for dissent today.

And the reason isn't that the Bucks are getting all of the calls. Rather, this has everything to do with how the Bucks are frustrating opponents, mostly on the defensive end.

The BC is not a fun place for opponents to play. Not when the home team hasn't lost there in what will be over a month, as they hit the road this week. Last BC loss? March 17 against Houston. And if that feels like a long time ago, that makes sense.

Just win. After all the physical and emotioinal energy expended in the last three wins, it probably wasn't easy getting up for the Pacers. Or getting up at noon. After daylight saving cut an hour off. And, indeed, it didn't look like they got up for the game, but they got the win.

Brandon Jennings, after the game:

I haven't played this early in the morning since an AAU basketball game, and that was about three years ago. That's when I was about 16 or 17 so I had a lot of energy. Now, I was a little sluggish getting up this morning.

THREE BAD

The fourth. Milwaukee was well on its way to holding a sixth straight opponent under 90 points when they started the final quarter with a 76-62 lead. But just as both teams appared reading to admit the game was over, it all unraveled.

Soloman Jones and Brandon Rush led the comeback, and that is not a promising start to a sentence. Now, it got to the point where Skiles had to re-insert Bogut and Jennings into the game with over four minutes left when it looked like they would be able to rest the rest of the way.

But don't blame this one on the bench -- the Bucks had a nice lead in the first place largely thanks to its reserves. And after Bogut and Jennings returned, the Pacers still outscored them by two, so it's not like they closed it out that gracefully.

32 in the fourth for Indy. Just an uneasy way to finish such a tremendous run of basketball at home before the Bucks take to the road this week.

Solomon Jones. Big bad Solomon Jones was good, which was bad for the Bucks. Sort of like letting Earl Boykins beat you over and over, except seventeen times larger, Milwaukee allowed the seldom-used Jones to make the most of seven fourth quarter minutes.

Jones came into the game with 7:13 to go in regulation and the Pacers down by 14 points. And from that point on, he was the best player on the floor, I know most of you didn't get to watch the game, but he really was it. Jones was equally punishing on both ends of the court and he scored nine points, had a huge steal, and pulled down three offensive rebounds in a shockingly effective run. Good thing Roy Hibbert was out there for 29 minutes.

Free throw game. I hyped Milwaukee's free throw form in the preview, and TheJay posted an updated look at the Bucks losing the free throw battle this season just a couple minutes before tip-off. And free throws certainly proved to be a theme of the day, but not in a good way.

The Pacers shot 33-36 from the free throw line, while the Bucks made 18-24. Indiana is a terrible offensive team, and just about the only way they were able to hang was at the line. Danny Granger is an awfully tough cover, and he earned 11-11 at the stripe, but 36 attempts overall is just inexcusable. The Bucks have been good defensively from the start, but they have only been moving up as their foul-happy play has been toned down. Too many easy points.

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Josh McRoberts in his day.

2009/2010 NBA Season
21-44 (7-28 away)	vs.	35-29 (22-9 home)
March 13, 2010
Bradley Center
12:00 PM
Radio: WTMJ AM 620 TV: No Local
Probable starters:
Earl Watson	PG	Brandon Jennings
Brandon Rush	SG	Charlie Bell
Danny Granger	SF	Carlos Delfino
Troy Murphy	PF	Luc Mbah a Moute
Roy Hibbert	C	Andrew Bogut
(28th) 101.9 - OFFENSE - 104.4 (24th)
(17th) 107.2 - DEFENSE - 102.6 (3rd)
(2nd) 97.7 - PACE - 92.5 (17th)

Linkage

Indy Cornrows / Indy Star / Eight Points, Nine Seconds

Uneven.
The Pacers are terrible on the road (7-28), the Bucks are excellent at home (22-9), the Pacers are awful on offense (28th in efficiency), and the Bucks are quite fascinating defensively (3rd in efficiency. So, something nothing has to give. I don't think the Bucks have been quite good enough for quite long enough to take games for granted, and Scott Skiles will remind them in case they aren't sure.

Drawing it up for 'Drew.
Milwaukee is already 3-0 against Indiana this season, but it's not like they have dominated things. Wins by counts of 84-81 on 31 and 18 from Bogut, 93-81 on 21 and 8 from Bogut, and 112-110 on 15 and 10 from Bogut. Indeed, the Aussie has led Three Bucks in each of the first three matchups so far, easily having his way with Indiana's frontcourt.

On line at the line.
The Bucks are shooting 87-104 (.837) at the free throw line in March. Andrew Bogut is 24-29 (.828) this month. Incredible.

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Box Score

MILWAUKEE -- Four and a half months into the season, and the Bucks have reached a new high point.

No one predicted the Bucks to start 8-3, the first three weeks were magical, but we had read that book before, seen that movie, and it didn't end well.

Remember 15-9 in 2005-06? 40-42 by the end. The 7-7 beginning in 2007-08? Finished 26-56.

The nice start was just something that happens every two years, and this was year two. Happens, and then we move on to reality, to a losing season, a lost season. In a way, you couldn't be too surprised to be happy -- it was November. Check back in December or January, it never took long.

And there the Bucks were, 12-18 leaving December, worse than the year before. From five games above .500 to six below in barely more than a month. It felt so wrong, but sadly, it felt all too right. Sure, it was hard to write the recaps of the piling losses, but it was also easy. I wasn't new to this, there was a template.

So this is new. This incredible recovery to not only get back to where they were in November, but to reach even higher than 8-3, now six games above .500 at 35-29. Five wins in a row, 11 out of 12, the only loss in overtime in Atlanta, a game that looked like they had won in regulation and overtime.

Tonight's game against Utah just sort of felt like a loss before tip. As hot as the Bucks were, they used a lot of energy to beat a LeBron-less Cavs team, a reeling Boston club, and you figured they would top the hapless Pacers on Sunday. You cautiously assumed the Bucks would at some point lose another game in the future, and this one, against such a complete, in-form team and tough matchup, looked like the one.

And so of course that didn't happen. What did happen: Brandon Jennings outplayed Deron Williams, Ersan Ilyasova was clutch-as-can-be, and the Bucks managed to win with a good-but-not-great game from Andrew Bogut.

The defense, at this point, is just remarkable. Five games into March, and these 87 points are the most that they have allowed.

35-29. The highest point.

So far.

THREE BUCKS

Brandon Jennings. After all of the early-season comparisons, Brandon Jennings is proving to be one of the more unique rookies in memory. Is he a pure scorer, a natural distributor, outside shooter, floor leader, maybe even good defender? We are still figuring it out, he is still figuring it out. But as not only the starting point guard, but just about the only point guard with Luke Ridnour fading during the team's hot streak, it is obvious that Jennings is a whole lot.

Facing the player whom after the game he called the best point guard in the NBA, Brandon was in all-out attack mode. Despite giving almost 40 pounds and a couple inches to Deron Williams, he went straight to the hoop, straight from the start. Not all of his forays into the paint were fruitful, but most were: He converted on 4-7 in the lane. And while he passed well too, this was not passive Brandon, this was a brilliantly assertive Brandon.

23/6/4, thanks.

John Salmons. Up by a couple points with 19 seconds to go, Salmons pretty much finished the Jazz with two calm free throws to give Milwaukee a 91-87 lead. His volume and success rate at the line has been one of the most important ingredients to the team's success since his arrival, yet he was just 1-1 at the line combined in the previous two wins over Cleveland and Boston.

Salmons found his way back to the line in this one, hitting 6-8. He was even better from the field, making an extra-efficient 8-14 on a night both teams hovered around 40.0 % overall. And he was best yet from outside, making 2-3 threes.

A big, seven-point fourth quarter highlighted 24 points altogether for Salmons, who has led the Bucks in scoring seven times in 12 games, 11 wins.

Ersan Ilyasova. Turkish Thunder got the call early with Luc Mbah a Moute struggling to guard the bigger, taller, burlier Mehmet Okur, and he got the call late with the game on the line.

And Ersan made all the difference. Skiles subbed him in with 5:48 remaining in regulation and the Bucks trailing 78-75. He spent just about every minute and every second bringing the Bucks back from down three to up eight. No coincidence.

In the span of just over a minute after entering, Ilyasova drew a foul on Carlos Boozer, made both free throws, blocked Mehmet Okur, and assisted Andrew Bogut.

And Ersan's biggest moment of the game and his season was an offensive rebound and putback that lifted the Bucks to an 89-87 lead, the final field goal for either team, and in essence the game-winner. Especially for someone who has struggled a bit in some clutch situations in the past, what a night.

THREE NUMBERS

0. Utah shot 0-10 on three-pointers. A couple of those go in, we have trouble. Three go in, and they win.

9. All nine players for the Jazz turned the ball over at least once, totaling 16 turnovers altogether. The Bucks only committed nine turnovers.

6. Four different Bucks (Salmons 6-8, Jennings 6-6, Bogut 6-8, Ilyasova 6-6) made exactly six free throws, as Milwaukee made 24-28 (.857) overall.

THREE GOOD

Defense. Before the game I noted that the Jazz ranked last in the NBA in technicals, a testament to their cool nature and a reflection of their steady leader, Jerry Sloan. It's not like these guys are just coasting through the season without a care. After all, this is a top notch team, just one that isn't as excitable as the Celtics, Nuggets, or Lakers.

And while they may or may not say it was the refs, it was really the Bucks who frustrated the typically pleasant team leaders like Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams, the former earning an ejection and the latter who was outplayed by a rookie on both sides of the ball.

And it was Milwaukee's defense that frustrated them the most.

In a matchup of two very good defensive teams, the better one (defense, that is) won, as Milwaukee completely shut down all but three players, particularly stunting the threesome of Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko, and Paul Millsap, who shot a combined 4-17 (.235).

BC. Not a sellout, but the 14,917 were practicing for the playoffs in one of the most electric fourth quarters in a long time, building on the momentum from the loud, late drama against Boston a few nights before. Squad 6 was festive as always, there was some sort of other Squad across the building with flags and plenty of cheer, and even the low, lower-level fans couldn't help but stand up for this team.

The BC rocked throughout a few sequences in particular during the fourth quarter, starting with Ilyasova's block of Okur and finishing with a Jennings three-pointer to put Milwaukee up 84-80 about a minute and a half later.

Oh, and the Bucks haven't lost at the Bradley Center since Feb. 17, and a win over Indiana on Sunday will guarantee more than a full undefeated month at home in a row. Unreal.

Pass. I'm not passing on the third Good.

I'm writing about outlet passes, backdoor passes, around-the-back passes, pick-and-rolling passes, extra passes, bounce passes, swing passes, the Bucks just passed their way right past the Jazz this evening. Jennings pushed the ball to every open player, Bogut went around-the-back on one play, Delfino was the maestro he longs to be, and the Bucks moved the ball with cunning and purpose.

Overall, 21 assists to 10 turnovers.

And it's not just the passes, it's the off-the-ball movement and awareness that has transformed this offense into a free-flowing one that in prior years was stagnant even in its better moments.

Meanwhile, the most memorable Jazz pass was one into a cup that doused a front-row patron with beer.

THREE ONE BAD

Bench? Skiles again had to ride the starters heavy, heavy minutes, as only Ilyasova was productive off the bench. Of particular concern is Luke Ridnour, who quite inevitably has been coming back to earth after reaching for some sort of starry stratosphere most of the season. The coach doesn't seem interested in giving Charlie Bell minutes (even on his birthday. Happy 31st, Charlie) so hopefully Ridnour turns it back around a bit.

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2009/2010 NBA Season
42-22 (15-14 road)	vs.	34-29 (21-9 home)
March 12, 2010
Bradley Center
7:30 PM
Radio: WTMJ AM 620 TV: FSN Wisconsin HD
Probable starters:
Deron Williams	PG	Brandon Jennings
Wesley Matthews	SG	John Salmons
Andrei Kirilenko	SF	Carlos Delfino
Carlos Boozer	PF	Luc Mbah a Moute
Mehmet Okur	C	Andrew Bogut
(6th) 110.7 - OFFENSE - 104.5 (23rd)
(8th) 104.8 - DEFENSE - 102.7 (5th)
(19th) 92.2 - PACE - 92.7 (17th)

Coverage

SLC Dunk / True Blue Jazz / Salt City Hoops / Desert News

Offensive.
At 42-22 (.656), the Jazz have the best record of any opponent that the Bucks face at home the rest of the year. Utah is very good defensively, and something of an offensive juggernaut. They are sixth in offensive efficiency and lead the NBA shooting 49.0 % from the field. The Jazz also are first in percent of field goals assisted, at 67.9 %.

Utah has hit triple digits in six straight games and have gone 132+ twice in that span, and this is a major test for Milwaukee's defense, which hasn't allowed an opponent to reach 88 points in four March games.

Cool Jazz.
This one might not get as rough and rowdy as the C's game. Whereas Boston is second in the NBA with 82 technicals, the Jazz are last in the NBA with 25.

Inside.
Andrew Bogut should have plenty of opportunities to extend his streak of games with a blocked shot against Utah. The Jazz attempt the third most shots at the rim in the NBA, averaging 30.9 per game. However, they convert on a healthy 64.3 % on those shots. In comparison, the Bucks attempt 24.4 shots at the rim per game, making 56.8 %.

2.0.
The Bucks are exactly two games ahead of Toronto, Charlotte, and Miami, and lead reeling, ninth-place Chicago by 3.5 games. Derrick Rose left last night's loss to the Magic with a sprained wrist after going up against Dwight Howard in the lane. Tonight, Charlotte hosts the Clippers and Chicago plays in Miami.

Wesley.
Undrafted, former Marquette hooper Wesley Matthews is the starting at shooting guard for the Jazz these days. Utah curiously dealt away Ronnie Brewer to Memphis last month. Not a popular move at the time, but Brewer only made it 11 minutes into his Memphis career before straining his hamstring, and Matthews has played solid, unspectacular basketball. Wesley is limited offfensively, but is a real defensive player, even accumulating five steals in 25 minutes in a win over the Bulls on Tuesday.

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More photos » Alex Brandon - AP

Skiles has Bucks Nation pretty fired up.

Browse more photos »

CNNSI: Skiles the league's most underappreciated coach
Frank Hughes gives Scott Skiles some well-deserved respect...no argument here.  If you want to talk about John Hammond's best moves as a GM, I still say it starts with hiring Skiles as his partner in crime.  It's not always ideal for the coach to play a major role in personnel decisions, but Hammond and Skiles seem to have developed a good understanding about what kind of players they need to win games--and how to get them on a reasonable budget.  Thankfully the rest of the league seems to be noticing as well.  Skiles won East coach of the month honors in February and the always-on-point Kelly Dwyer has him narrowly ahead of Jerry Sloan and Scott Brooks for COY honors.

One NBA insider said Skiles comes up with some of the most creative play-calling in the league and has a firm handle on the mismatches that give Milwaukee an advantage. He has handled Jennings masterfully, even as the rookie has struggled with his shot for a while. And Skiles has Andrew Bogut playing so well that he looks like the league's next great center.

Courtside Analyst: Don't let the weak schedule fool you
Ty offers some reassurance that the Bucks' strong play since the break has been more than just the benefits of a weak schedule.  Here's a sample to whet your appetite:

The Bucks winning percentage in the last 12 games is +.289 higher than the winning percentage you would expect an average NBA team to achieve against the very same schedule, meaning the Bucks "Relative Winning Percentage" (as I call it) since the All Star break is roughly.685%. To put that another way, since the All-Star break the Bucks have played like a team you would expect to win 56.5 games over the course of an 82 game season. Very, very good.

Hollinger: Bucks 11th in latest power rankings
John Hollinger explains why he has the streaking Bucks ahead of the Mavs (winners of 13 straight) in his power rankings.  Marc Stein also had them 11th, but that was before the Celtics game.

Would I take Dallas to beat them in a series?
No. Dallas won both meetings versus Milwaukee but by the smallest of margins (one in overtime, the other by a single point). Because both contests happened before the Bucks' recent rejuvenation, I'd lean toward Milwaukee in a neutral-site series. The Bucks are unquestionably the East's most dangerous low seed heading into the playoffs.

Whoa. 

Fanhouse: Fear the Deer
Ziller and Co. have the Bucks 9th in their latest rankings. Plus, some more level for Bogut's defense.  Also, it seems like everyone's latching onto the "Fear the Deer" slogan, but that's been around for a while, right?  Not sure where I first heard it.

Andrew Bogut has been a flat-out beast of late, averaging 3.7 blocks per game over the past 10, and blocking a monstrous six percent of all opponent shots on the season, good for fourth in the league. If not for Mr. Dwight Howard, this dude'd be a legit All-Defense first-teamer. He'll have to be content with the second team, assuming voters list Tim Duncan as a forward.

Woelfel: Spiritual Salmons helping Bucks find playoff promised land
Gery Woelfel has a long feature on the Bucks' newest difference-maker, including some interesting stuff about the impact of Salmons' faith on his career. Everyone knows about Redd's Christianity, so perhaps it's fitting that the man replacing him is of similar devotion--though as Salmons alludes to, I'd never heard this mentioned about him previously.

"I know when I have gotten interviewed, reporters don't really like talking about God," Salmons said slowly. "I have mentioned God a lot, but I never see it in the papers when I do read the papers.

"Like if I hit a big shot, I'd say it's God," Salmons said. "And I really believe that. I don't believe that was me who made that shot. I believe it was all God's doing. When I'm out there, I rely on him 100 percent."

Nothing Easy: Google search suggestions for "Kevin Garnett"
I saw this just before the Bucks/Celtics game, which is pretty ironic given all the buzz about Brandon Jennings' trash talking of the former MVP after the game. I'm sure this won't be the last we hear of KG and the C's, but then again it says a lot about the Bucks' newfound spunk that their little point isn't afraid to stand up to the big boys. Besides, KG will probably take the high road anyway...

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I could watch this over and over (h/t BLKOUT)

I still tend to start sweating and look around nervously when the words "Bucks" and "playoffs" are mentioned in the same sentence, but after yesterday's win it's hard to avoid thinking about what April might hold.  A crushing collapse of epic proportions?  A shocking upset of a first round Goliath?  I'll play it safe and say it'll probably be something in between, but that's certainly not a bad outcome all things considered.  Rome wasn't built in a day, and the Bucks' metamorphosis from lottery fodder to legit contender won't happen in a single season either.   It's OK--we're having fun anyway.

The funny part is of course that now even the national media is taking notice of the little basketball team that could. Next week's Clipper game is on ESPN, the Canadians are talking, and if you're looking for positive reinforcement about the Bucks' playoff chops, John Hollinger's playoff numbers are looking pretty good for the Bucks.   

We've been talking about five teams battling for four spots in the East for weeks, but Milwaukee's win over Boston on Tuesday essentially cemented a playoff berth for the Bucks. Milwaukee has 34 wins in the bank with 11 home games remaining, and it is the hottest team in the league right now (sorry, Dallas) with 10 wins in 11 games since acquiring John Salmons.

If that wasn't enough, the Bucks should own every tiebreaker with teams still fighting for playoff slots. They clinched the head-to-head series with Toronto and Miami, and their 25-15 conference record should give them an edge over Charlotte and Chicago, even if the Bucks lose their final meeting against each team. As an added bonus, the Bucks' final three games -- against Boston, Atlanta and Boston again -- could become gimmes if the playoff seedings of the Hawks and Celtics are locked in place.

CoolStandings.com pegs the Bucks a 98.5% lock to make the East's final eight, only a tick less than Hollinger's 99.2%. That might seem like a lot given the Bucks are only three games ahead of the ninth-seeded Bulls, but the Bucks home-heavy schedule the rest of the way, their level of recent play, and their ownership of most tiebreakers give them a clear edge over the chasing pack. Aside from that, all these projections rely at least somewhat on Pythagorean projections (ie points scored vs. points allowed) and the Bucks' expected winning percentage (.559) is still higher than their actual percentage (.540), owing largely to their 5-10 record in games decided by three points or less.

Who will they face?  There's a fair bit of separation between the Magic (45-20) and Hawks (40-23) in the Southeast, so you'd guess Orlando hangs on there and condemns Atlanta to the 3rd or 4th seed--indeed, Cool Standings has Orlando a 96% favorite to win the division.  That leaves the Celtics (40-22) fairly locked into the third seed unless they can catch Orlando for #2 left to fight with the Hawks for 3/4 spots [thanks to ZV for noting that since 06/07 the division winners are guaranteed a top four seed, not a top three...sadly, I haven't had to brush up on my playoff seeding rules since 05/06].

Which means it will mostly be up to the Bucks to determine which team they face, which is about how you'd want it.  As much as the Celtics may not be at their best right now, I can't honestly say I'd prefer to play them over a younger, less playoff-tested squad like the Hawks.  We'll get a better feel for how the Bucks match up with both teams in the final 19 games, as the Bucks play Atlanta three more times (twice at home) and face the Celtics twice more.  If the Bucks slip they could end up facing the Cavs or Magic, neither of whom I'd feel too good about--primarily because their bigs match up better with Bogut.  Check out our playoff matchup discussion for more.

In other good news, don't forget the fine print on the John Salmons trade. Aside from getting the Bulls' 2010 and 2011 second rounders, the Bucks also have the right to swap first round picks with the Bulls provided Chicago's not in the top ten, which as of now that means they'd move up a fair bit in the draft.  Considering Salmons has been exactly what the Bucks needed, that's some pretty nice gravy. 

Chicago just dropped a half game behind Miami last night for the 8th spot, meaning the Bucks--who would pick 18th if the season ended today--could move all the way up to 11th in the first round if Chicago ends up just outside the playoffs.  Still a long way to go, but Hollinger is predicting the final spot to come down to the Raptors and Bulls, so there's a chance the Bucks could get the best of both worlds.

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Box Score

MILWAUKEE - Last March, right around this time, the Celtics came to town, the fans made Ray Allen feel right at home, and the Bucks scored 86 points, enough for a win.

Those are the similarities. But this is about differences. The mighty big changes in pro basketball in this city.

Because while the name still reads the same on the front of the jersey, they are just about all different on the back. The starting lineup from the March 15, 2009 win over Boston? Try Ramon Sessions, Luc Mbah a Moute, Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva, and Francisco Elson. The only remaining starter, The Principal, went from shooting guard to power forward. Yeah.

So maybe we shouldn't be so surprised that it's March and the Bucks are still good.

After all, they are still the Bucks, but with Brandon Jennings, John Salmons, Carlos Delfino, Ersan Ilyasova, Luc Mbah a Moute, and this Andrew Bogut, they aren't quite like anything we remember. And try as we might to forget, we do remember.

We remember five straight last place finishes, and the players remember how it was supposed to be six straight. Even a teenager half a world away last year was apparently briefed about the past and the expectations, or lack thereof. After the game, Brandon Jennings:

I know a lot of people doubted us in the beginning of the season, had us almost last. But we are here too, we are fighting for a spot in the playoffs too. So don't forget about us.

So now we have something we actually want to remember. And the latest is a Bucks win over the Celtics, chiefly the result of magnificent play by Bogut, and magnificent plays by Bogut. The center started the game as strongly as ever, picking up right where he left off in Boston about three months ago. But as the Bucks moved away from him, the Celtics moved into the lead. Not coincidentally, Boston won its only period in the second quarter when Bogut was scoreless.

The Bucks trailed entering the fourth quarter and didn't score during the final 2:41 of regulation, but they did enough in between to make it work. Namely, Bogut carried the team on both ends while the sickly Delfino hit his fifth three of the game, Salmons popped in five quick ones, Ilyasova was eternally right-place/right-time, Jennings scooped in a floater for the final points, and the defense, oh, the defense.

Up two in the final moments, Milwaukee took a foul with 3.9 seconds to go. A good idea, but also just enough time for Ray Allen to sink his first shot of the game, a three pointer of course. But the ball went to Pierce, and, well, the Bucks defended just like they had all game, all month, all season. Still could have gone in, we know that and that. But not this time.

This was a chippy affair, a game that looked more like late-April than early-March by the time Glen Davis barreled into Jennings on a fast break, earning technicals for each.

And if this keeps up, we will soon get to watch games that are late-April instead of ones that just look the part.

THREE BUCKS

Andrew Bogut. Looking every bit the best player on a court with at least six future Hall of Fame feet running around but certainly never through him, Bogut smashed the Celtics for 10 points, six rebounds and a couple blocks in a first quarter highlighted by a slam on Big Baby Davis Big Baby Davis.

And then the second quarter happened, and so went Bogut, so went the Bucks: Nowhere. He neither demanded the ball nor did his teammates look for him, and when they did, the entry passes were telegraphed. I thought we were past that. And for the most part, we are.

Bogut stormed back to the forefront of the night in the second half with 15 more points and a couple more blocks, at once turning the game offensively, and turning the game defensively. Something like a phenomenon at both ends of the court, this Aussie.

All sorts of memorable plays: the ferocious rebound-dunk off a corner Charlie Bell three-point miss to tie the game 59-59, the epic stuff of Paul Pierce and perfect full-court outlet to Brandon Jennings who was subsequently clobbered by Glen Davis, and just when the Celtics had no answer for Bogut, the picture-perfect feed to Ersan Ilyasova for an and-one.

And in he end, he looked every bit the best player on the court -- one of the best on any court -- with 25 points, 17 rebounds, 4 blocks, and 5-5 at the line.

Carlos Delfino. Pretty early on, Jeremy dubbed this his flu game. Well, this wasn't that, but it was a nice performance for someone feeling and looking a bit under the weather, as Skiles had revealed before the game that Delfino had been suffering from the flu.

A couple of his five threes were low-probability, but they were fortunately falling on a night the Bucks needed all of his 19 points.

Delfino threaded a pretty backdoor pass to Jennings, generally found open spaces against a sticky Boston defense, and in the end clearly outplayed Paul Pierce.

Brandon Jennings. So, at 20, Jennings might not be out of his prime after all?

The learning curve is steep for all rookie point guards. For Brandon, it has been mountainous -- only he started at just about the top in November. Since then, he's taken some hard tumbles down, but continues to climb back up. And now, against two of the conference's dominant clubs against Cleveland and now Boston, Jennings has strung together two very excellent games.

An eventful night toward the end, as he missed that potential game-sealing jumper at the end, got into it with Kevin Garnett in the tunnel after the game, and had plenty to say in the post-game locker room.

Jennings and Glen Davis were both hit with technicals after Davis pretty much tackled Brandon on his way to the hoop, where it looked a lot like he wanted to dunk.

It was a hard foul. They are known for punking people, but they weren't going to come in here and just punk me.

THREE NUMBERS

18-3. Boston outscored Milwaukee 18-3 on the fastbreak, as Rajon Rondo cooked up dreamy dishes in transition while the Bucks had to work, mostly through Bogut, to score in the halfcourt. Quite an accomplishment to get just about all of those points the hard way against such a stout defense.

8-17. Milwaukee shot 8-17 (.471) on threes against the team ranking third in three point defense entering the night. I was surprised to see the Bucks were given at least three wide-open looks from deep in the first quarter alone, but I'm just getting used to this ball movement stuff.

90 %. The Bucks are playing .900 (9-1) ball since the arrival of John Salmons. After netting a personal-Bucks-low 12 points against the Cavs, John Salmons pitched in with 16  tonight despite not making a free throw for just the second time since arriving from Chicago. Such a gift to this team.

THREE GOOD

Bogut v. Boston. After putting up 25/14 with a couple blocks in round one in Boston, the center played even better tonight with 25/17 and four blocks.

From beginning to end, he had a fairly easy time using either hand to loft hooks over the awfully quiet Kendrick Perkins.

So maybe it's not so bad that the Bucks play Celtics twice more in the regular season, and perhaps more than a couple more times in the playoffs.

BC. Even in a win on Saturday over the NBA's best team, the Bradley Center didn't burst like it did tonight. The horrifying reality of paying top dollar to watch LeBron James and seeing Jawad Williams may have muted some of the customers, but the atmosphere resembled a playoff match against Boston.

Not a sellout with 14,316 on hand tonight, but the crowd was loud and ready when the drama escalated late.

With all of the road success, don't lose sight of how Milwaukee has held home court all year, not just lately. Tenth best home mark in basketball at 21-9.

Jennings was diggin' the atmosphere:

This was the craziest I think it has ever been in here so far.

Defending the stars. The Cavaliers with LeBron are title favorites, without him they are merely okay. So that win over Cleveland on Saturday rightfully led with a disclaimer.

Not this time. The Bucks beat a Boston squad in full effect, a team fighting for playoff positioning, and eager to claw, argue, and fight its way to a win.

All the stars were out (or in, if you will), including the Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce/Ray Allen troika. Garnett (14/10) was a tough cover, but Luc Mbah a Moute and the Bucks mostly held him in check and KG only made one bucket in the final 16 minutes of regulation.

Even better was the defense on Pierce (3-13, four turnovers) and especially hometown hero Allen (0-3 in 34 minutes).

Scott Skiles doesn't offer compliments for fun:

We were really sharp on the defensive end. It was not an easy game for us, it was back and forth, a physical game... we needed our defense to keep us in the game, and it did.

THREE BAD

Battle of the benches. Sans Jerry Stackhouse, the Bucks didn't bring much off the bench. Literally.

Skiles, after the game.

The absence of Jerry was big tonight, we could have used him tonight.

Indeed. Skiles rode the starters atypically extensive minutes -- four of them played 40+ minutes -- as only Ersan Ilyasova was effective whatsoever among the backups. Charlie Bell and Luke Ridnour were particularly ineffective, to the point I can't decide who was worse.

Meanwhile, Boston received lavish production from its reserves, and the team played best when Rasheed Wallace (+11), Marquis Daniels (+4), and Nate Robinson (+2) were on the floor.

'Sheed. Not sure how he avoided a technical, but on offense, defense, during timeouts, in between quarters, possibly via telephone before and after the game, Rasheed Wallace barked at the refs. 'Sheed's natural reaction to sinking a wide-open three? Like anything else: Rather impolitely berate the official all the way down the court, of course. In the league since 1995, and this act hasn't expired?

Rondo's free throws. Rajon Rondo entered the night shooting 60.6 % from the free throw line this year, 62.8 % for his career, and 83.3 % for his career against Milwaukee. Law of percentages, that has to go down, right. So of course, Rajon just kills the Bucks, making 8-9 at the line. Nifty player though.

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It’s time for another edition of everyone’s favorite infrequently posted blog segment, the NBA Clothing Spotlight. With the Bucks recent hot play, this item is centered around one of the deer that should be feared.

Moute Kicks Boute

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is the silent assassin on the Bucks. He typically has to defend the best offensive player on the other team, be it Dirk Nowitzki or Kevin Durant. As a reward for his hard work, Mbah a Moute never gets a single play called for him. So how does he post a career average of seven points a game? The offensive glass. Despite being undersized as a starting power forward, Luc Richard yanks down over two offensive rebounds a game. Those rebounds usually go straight back up and result in two points for the good guys.

How can you honor a defensive stopper who is arguably the hardest worker in the league? Buy his t-shirt.

Past Editions of NBA Clothing Spotlight

• Zombie Sonics

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